QCAA Geography Global population change

Between 1990 and 2022, the four most populous countries were China, India, USA and Indonesia. In 2050, it is projected that India will be the most populous country, overtaking China, which will see a decline in population (down to 1317 million). Some countries will drop out of the top 10 by 2050, including Japan, the Russian Federation and Mexico, while other countries move into the top 10, like the DRC. Beyond 2050, India will likely retain the top position as its population continues to grow due to a possible increase in birth rate.

Answers could include:

Demographics include age, gender, socioeconomic and cultural distribution patterns.

Characteristics include highest/lowest and/or maximum/minimum (i.e. range) such as:

Age:

• Greater Perth has an average age of 37 which is 1 year younger than the Western Australian average
• a higher proportion of the older population live in suburbs in the Established Residential Zone. For example, in Claremont, the average age is 43 (compared to the Greater Perth average of 37) and people over the age of 65 make up 25% of the population in that suburb
• a higher proportion of the younger population live in suburbs in the Newer Growth Zones. For example, in Piara Waters, the average age is 31, which is lower than the Greater Perth average, and people over the age of 65 make up 4.3% of the population in that suburb.

Gender:

• Greater Perth has a 49.4% male and 50.6% female which is within 0.3% of Western Australia’s ratio
• gender disparity is also evident in the established residential zone, where females tend to outnumber males. For example, in Peppermint Grove, females make up 57% of the population
• gender disparity also occurs in inner cities such as Northbridge which has a higher proportion of males (55.9%) compared to females.

Answers could include:

Only accept the following challenges:

• housing
• economic restructuring
• employment
• transportation
• environmental degradation
• waste management
• land abandonment
• urban sprawl
• socio-spatial inequality
• social exclusions
• water supply.

Housing:
Causes

• income inequality due to high demand for quality housing and exclusionary neighbourhoods
• rent burden due to difficulty in finding affordable rental housing
• inflationary pressure on household expenditure
• taxes and rising property values
• high construction costs
• residential dwellings being converted to holiday accommodation for tourists and empty investment properties.

Impacts

• rent-burden and financial strain on households
• overcrowding of accommodation and homelessness
• foreclosures, eviction
• multi-generational households
• job loss, domestic violence and poor housing conditions
• greater socio-spatial inequities and marginalisation of elderly, sick and immigrants
• imbalance between residential and employment locations.

Transport:
Causes

• aging infrastructure – old roads, bridges and subway systems; lack of provision/quality of accessible public transport
• housing growth on the periphery (rural-urban fringe)
• increasing cost of housing in central areas has increased car-dependency, congestion and usage of road systems
• increase in delivery and commercial vehicles compounds traffic congestion and gridlocking of traffic, and adds to parking demand
• influx of people commuting into city centres – workers, tourists, students, hospital patients, day-trippers
• topography and site limitations, i.e. number of access points to a city
• increasing population size/location of employment and workers
• lack of provision/quality of accessible public transport or inadequate road links into central areas.

Impacts

• increase in traffic congestion, loss of productivity, delays, decrease in fuel efficiency, increase in running costs
• increases in business operating costs
• increasing expenses in petrol and on-going maintenance
• increase in accidents involving commuters, cyclists and pedestrians
• increase in air pollution and health related illnesses
• congested public transport systems
• social, emotional, economic toll on commuters.

Economic restructuring:
Causes

• globalisation
• centrifugal forces and decentralisation of some industries/manufacturing functions
• urban sprawl, suburbanisation and newly developed suburbs.

Impacts

• income disparity
• environmental impacts such as water, soil and land pollution
• increases in crime, vandalism, social unrest, socio-spatial inequities and blighted/unappealing sites
• cost to remediate contaminated brownfield sites and opportunities for redevelopment.

Demographics include age, gender, socioeconomic and cultural distribution patterns.

Characteristics include highest/lowest and/or maximum/minimum (i.e. range) such as:

Socioeconomic:

• New York City has a slightly higher income of ＄50 764 when compared to New York State which has an average income of ＄48 847
• there are higher levels of education in Manhattan, compared to boroughs outside of Manhattan, especially the Bronx and Queens. For example: 22% of people over the age of 25 in the Bronx have attained a university qualification, compared to 62% in Manhattan
• there is income disparity, for example the average income in Jersey is ＄58 216 compared to Manhattan which has an average income of ＄94 654
• poverty is generally more prevalent in the outer suburbs. For example, 27.9% of the population in the Bronx live below the poverty line, while overall in New York City, it is 14.2%.

Cultural:

• New York City has a larger ratio of Hispanic Asian and Black people (63%) when compared to New York State which has 42% for the same ethnic groups
• there is a higher proportion (74%) of Hispanic/Latino population in the Bronx compared to 22% or less across most of lower Manhattan and Staten Island
• there is a difference in immigration patterns with a higher proportion (36.2%) of the Bronx population being born overseas while Staten Island has 25.5% and Manhattan 39% of the population being born overseas
• 46% of the adult population in the Bronx speak Spanish and 41% speak English at home, while 62% speak English and 19% speak Spanish in Manhattan.

Only accept the following challenges:

• housing
• economic restructuring
• employment
• transportation
• environmental degradation
• waste management
• land abandonment
• urban sprawl
• socio-spatial inequality
• social exclusions
• water supply.

Waste Management:
Causes

• population growth
• economic growth such as increased GDP and household income leads to a ‘make, use, dispose’ mindset
• volumes of waste generated by construction, demolition, industrial processes, food manufacturing and households
• unsustained improvements in the capacity to treat, recycle or dispose of waste materials
• poor education and understanding on how to recycle causes recyclable materials to end up in landfill
• lack of waste processing facilities and a dependence on landfill
• lack of alternative international markets.

Impacts

• leakage (leachate) of toxic chemicals; contamination of groundwater, soils or surface waters
• economic cost to local governments to manage illegal waste disposal, management of landfill sites
• waste levies for households
• traffic noise and congestion from waste disposal vehicles
• odours from waste management sites, and vehicles attract feral animals and pests and can negatively influence real estate prices.

Urban sprawl:
Causes

• growth of population
• urban planning
• land use segregation and associated parking policies
• urban boundary leapfrogging and transport infrastructure expansion
• availability of land on outer boundaries and fringes of urban areas
• car ownership
• Australian dream of owning a home
• housing affordability and government/developer incentives.

Impacts

• clearing of bushland and the subsequent fragmentation of habitats and the threat to fragile ecological communities
• land use conflicts
• cost to governments, businesses and-taxpayers for the construction and maintenance of extensive infrastructure assets
• delay in the provision of urban amenities and the negative social and financial impacts on residents that are required to travel
• creates car dependency which promotes car orientated development and reinforces public attitudes towards car ownership and use.

Water Supply:
Causes

• population growth increasing demand for fresh water supplies and water infrastructure
• declining rainfall and changing rainfall patterns over the past 100 years
• ineffective above ground reservoir systems due to less surface priming and runoff into dams
• increased water demand for agricultural irrigation systems.

Impacts

• a reduction in ground water sources due to a reduction in aquifer recharge
• decline in aquifer water quality due to lower water levels and reduced protection against saltwater intrusion
• cost of water supply and the use of a tiered pricing system is required to recover increasing water supply infrastructure costs, such as desalination plants, and sewerage costs
• increasing prices impacting disposable incomes for individuals and families
• water sprinkler bans and programs require a change of behaviour and attitude about the use of water. For example, hydro-zoning in community parks.